How Long Does it Take to Sell a House in Today’s Market?

Real estate brokers are often asked, “How long will my house be on the market?”

We can only speak in averages, utilizing some of our experience to weigh and balance your home’s appeal, decor, location and other salient factors.  One key factor is assessing how much inventory we have on the market.  And where the new listing falls among the competition for price and condition.

Sellers should pay attention to the length of time their house will take to sell for a few reasons:

In Denver, the MLS posts average Days on Market.  Higher inventory generally means longer DoM.  When inventory is lower, DoM shrinks too.  In May 2010, we had 21,433 homes/condos on the market.  Average DoM was 76.  In June 2010, we had 22,689 homes/condos on the market and the average DoM went up to 82.

Average DoM is looking back. Looking forward, how long could it take to sell? Take existing inventory and divide by sales that month.  In June, Denver had 5.4 months supply of single family homes on the market.

Here’s a simple chart to explain the conventional real estate wisdom around inventory and time on market.  When houses take 7 months or more to sell, it’s a depreciating market.  When it takes less than 4 months, prices will be appreciating.  This is basic real estate supply and demand.

Supply and Demand Chart

Denver real estate inventoryDenver’s available single family as compared with closed is pushing us above 5 months of inventory.  DoM will likely continue to lengthen in coming months.  More homes coming on, fewer selling.  Eventually, this could erode the price stabilization we’ve had.

However!  Buyers could react to low rates and low prices, realizing that their dream of a new home has more to do with lifestyle than with timing the markets.  If banks don’t push out too much new inventory, prices will keep stabilizing.

It’s the shadow inventory that threatens us.  Without that, Denver is poised to bump along for awhile and then turn the corner. There are buyers who recognize this is a great time to buy.  They will get the good deals at great rates.  Sellers must be keenly aware of the fine balance we’re facing - balancing how new inventory could affect their saleability.

Watch the monthly market statistics here.  Do the math and calculate how many months inventory we have and determine the best way to move your home to the front of the line - the home that buyers will pick next.

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 1 Comment »

Top 5 Things You Must Know to Get Your House Sold Now

A friend of mine is a lender in a mountain town in Colorado.  We’ve been talking about home sales and where the market might be headed.  Here is an excerpt of an email he sent me yesterday:

“From what I’m hearing around the country (from lenders,) everyone has seen the buyer market completely dry up.  Like off a cliff.  Wonderful.  At least I’m busy with refinances.”

Why is the buyer market drying up?  Rates are at unbelievable lows. Like nothing any of us has seen in our lifetime.  Prices are as low as they’ve been since 2004With low rates and low prices, buyers can now purchase a home they could only dream about 5 or 6 years ago.

But here’s the rub - some buyers are struggling with unemployment, some are pulling back on spending and paying off debt or refinancing, and some have changed their mindset from a house being a home to a house being an investment. Those in the last category seem compelled to wait until the market “bottoms out.”

They may be able to time the bottom, but they’ll likely as not miss it. The buyers who are buying now are the ones who realize that this current combination of low rates and low prices affords them the opportunity to focus on home as a lifestyle.  To find the home they want to live in and raise their families in, to retire in, to relax and shut out the craziness of the world in.

How do you get those buyers to make an offer on your house today?  Here the top 5 things you must know to get your house sold:

Shadow Inventory1.  Know your competition - There has been a lot of talk about “shadow inventory” the past few months.  What does that mean and how does is affect you?   Homes that are in the pipeline to come on the market, but aren’t on the market yet are in the shadow inventory.  Homeowners who are delinquent, but not yet in foreclosure are highly likely to have their homes added to this inventory.  Bank owned properties tend to reduce the value of all homes for sale, so this potential inventory poses some risk that we’ll have flat or reducing prices until we work this pig through the snake.  The experts suggest that we have between 4 and 8 million distressed properties not yet on the market.

2.  Know where you stand - You MUST pay attention to the feedback.  Some sellers say, “no one has said anything about price!”  They counter that the feedback has been about the size of the basement, the size of the back yard or the master bedroom closets.  I’m here to tell you now - this is disguised price feedback! Sellers, know this - There’s an ass for every saddle.  If you are getting feedback like the above the only way to address it is through price.  The buyers aren’t finding the value in your house yet, so they’re looking for another saddle.  If the feedback says your house is dirty or the paint is chipping, then you can clean and paint.

3.  No showings means wrong price - Are you getting no showings?  You rightfully feel that you can’t react to the feedback because you aren’t hearing any.  First, have your broker review the listing as it’s entered into the MLS. Make sure that there isn’t a mistake like the wrong sub area or incorrect directional information.  Check that the house is showing up on the typical internet sites.  Then consider whether you are ready to plunge into potentially severe price reductions.  With no showings at all, you could we way off target.  You’ll need to step down your price until you begin to get showings. You can now react to the feedback and see if you hit it, or if you need to reduce further.

Shadow Inventory4.  Keep abreast of new competitors - Shadow inventory doesn’t only include bank owned properties.  It’s also comprised of the homes that sellers will be putting on the market while you’re still trying to sell.  Studies suggest that a tremendous number of sellers have been waiting until they perceive the market is turning around.  In Denver, this shadow inventory has been hitting the market since our news got better.  Available properties are increasing as the news about homes sales improves. The good news has been fabulous, but the added inventory will lengthen the time it takes to sell a home, which could result in further price depreciation.  22 million people in the U.S. are at least somewhat likely to put their home on the market at signs of a turnaround.

5.  Don’t get behind the rock - No, not Dwayne Johnson.  I wouldn’t mind being behind Dwayne.  I mean the rock that’s rolling downhill.  If your house has been on the market for more than 30 days and/or 25 showings without an offer, you’re behind the rock.  Once you’re behind a rock that’s rolling downhill, it’s very hard to get back out in front of it.  Get in front of it now.  Look at the last chart carefully.  This is Case Shiller’s projected increase in inventory for the Denver area.  We’re facing an 89% increase in inventory in the next year.  Of course, that won’t be released all on the same day or week, but it’s a number to pay attention to.  If they’re even half right, we’ll have a lot of homes to sell in coming months.

Your broker’s job is to expose the house to the larger market - via MLS, internet marketing, personal networking, open houses, blogging, mailings, etc.  Your job is to react to the feedback.  Don’t take it personally. It’s not a reflection on your choice to buy the house (it may be if you live on a freeway.)  It’s a reflection on the market and what buyers - the only ones who count - think the house is worth.

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 2 Comments »

Is Your House For Sale? Why Isn’t it Sold!?

Home Price Expectation SurveyYou’ve been on the market a few weeks, or a few months. You’ve cleaned, you vacuum and turn on the lights before every showing.

Your broker carefully analyzed the recent sales and the current competition - the price seemed ok.  Not too high, but not leaving money on the table either.  You can always come down, you reasoned.

You eagerly await the feedback from every showing. Is this the one?

Now is the time to seriously reflect on why you are selling your house and what you’re going to do about it.

This market is kicking the pants off of experienced brokers and willing sellers. Now is the time to take the emotion out of it and analyze.

Denver has been riding a high.  We’re in the news about our recovery.  Our Days on Market are down from last year, meaning less time to sell a house.  But wait!  Days on Market are up since May.  Inventory is up since last year and since May.  What’s going on?

A Survey of 109 experts, economists and analysts by Macro Markets in the slide above shows that their expectation is that prices will not begin a serious rebound from today’s prices until 2012.  And we’re likely to see a decrease in prices between now and then.

Why?  The dreaded “shadow inventory” still lurks.  Denver real estate has benefited from banks holding back their REO properties.  Partly because they’re taking longer to foreclose and partly because they’re waiting for the market to turn.  These homes will be on the market in increasing numbers in the months to come.  Combine that shadow inventory with pent-up seller desire to sell, and you have a recipe for a huge influx of inventory.

More on this tomorrow.  Consider this - you have your house on the market today.  Do you want to compete with REO properties that will surely drive prices down?  Do you want to compete with new listings when yours may be viewed as stale?  Price to sell today.  You can move on - for all of the reasons you decided to sell in the first place.  I’ll bet that divesting of an “investment” wasn’t your main reason to move.  So focus on the real reasons - to be closer to family, to move to new schools, to follow a job.  Forget about the idea of waiting it out and getting a few more dollars.  My crystal ball tells me that’s gonna take awhile.

Search for your next home at Denver Real Estate.

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 1 Comment »

Sellers - Are You Taking the Sale of Your Home Seriously?

I’ve been working with two families who will be relocating to Denver in the next few weeks.  Both are lovely couples with school-age children, both are motivated to find a home to land in as soon as their houses sell.

When buyers who are moving to a new town come for a house hunting trip it can be a whirlwind.  We hit the ground running, whether it’s 95 degrees out, raining cats and dogs or the snow is anything less than a blizzard.  The days are long, the homes run into each other, and sellers have only moments to make an impression.

First impressions count.

Ugly showing instructionsThis is an actual sign I saw on a home last week.  I’ve made one alteration.  I’ve altered what was spelled out in full force to hit us between the eyes as we stepped up to the front door.

The buyers had their two young boys with them in their car, and asked me to run up and preview the house quickly before they got the kids out.  There was a retail center behind the house we weren’t counting on, and they felt it would be a deal killer.  However, being respectful to the sellers, they wanted me to take a quick look and leave my card.

As I came up the walkway, there were cigarette butts all over the front patio and crumpled cigarette packages in an empty planter.  The paint on the front door jamb was discolored and poorly re-painted.  Then there was the big sign on the door.  I’ve never seen anything like it.

Needless to say, we beat it out of there and never looked back.

I have to wonder who those sellers are?  This home is priced more than double the average home price in metro Denver, and is in an area of large suburban single family homes.  Do these sellers think this is funny?  Do they have teenagers and forget that you don’t talk to everyone else like this? (Or anyone else for that matter?)

I sent the listing broker detailed feedback and never received so much as a comment back from him.  A match made in heaven.  He apparently doesn’t want to sell his listing any more than his seller does.

Sellers - we have plenty of choices for buyers out there.  If you aren’t serious, don’t waste my time or my clients’.  Get your house looking its best. This is a beauty competition.  The house with the sign won for ugly.

Check out my listings online for terrific homes with fabulous sellers!

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 2 Comments »

Is Hope Your Selling Strategy? The Top 10 Signs You’ve Embraced Reality

Home for SaleWhat do you picture on the sign in front of your house?  For Sale?  Sold?

Some sellers picture For Sale By Owner, others picture For Sale By the Cheapest Broker We Could Find. The savvy sellers picture For Sale By the Most Experienced Broker for Our Property and Area.

Whatever you picture, ultimately you want to envision Sold And Moved to Our New Home!

Enlisting hope will not get Sold on your sign.

Enlisting reality will.

Here are the top 10 signs that you’ve embraced reality:

A few years’ ago, a populist economics book hit the stands, emphasizing that human behavior is based on a calculative rationality. One chapter stated that their research showed real estate brokers purposely under price their listings to sell them faster than they would sell their own homes - a calculated rationality or strategy.

As anecdotal as it is, I’ve watched broker after broker hang on to over-priced listings for months and sometimes years.  Even done it myself.  Since brokers are generally paid based on a percentage of the sales price, it would be in the brokers’ best interest to price their listings as high as possible.  Ultimately, though, it’s not the brokers who decide on the selling price, it’s the sellers and the buyers.  Nor is it the brokers’ decision how quickly sellers want to sell.  However, a house that isn’t selling because of price is a house that’s not really “on the market.”  If the feedback veers toward the blue paint or green carpet, those can be changed.

Getting a home sold entails hiring a professional to help you get the house ready for the market, to find qualified buyers and recognize if they aren’t qualified, to advise you during the negotiations and all phases of the transaction, and to handle the closing details.

If you want to see a sold sign and not just picture one, follow the 10  steps above and be mindful of what the universe is telling you. The universe of buyers for your house.

Looking to sell?  Contact Gretchen Faber for an assessment of your home’s market readiness. 

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 2 Comments »

Denver Colorado Real Estate | December 2009 Market Statistics

December 2009 Denver real estate market statisticsDecember. The end of the year. The end of the line?

Not really.  December was another interesting month in Denver Real Estate.  Inventory was naturally down, as it typically is this time of year.  We’re down to 16,456 active listings. That’s the lowest number of homes on the market since before 2006 when the available MLS records stop.  Meaning buyers have less to choose from than in the past 5 years.

The highest number of listings was in July of 2006 with 31,989 homes on the market.  We’re almost 50% off that number.

I remember one day back in 2006 pulling up listings in Highlands Ranch to show to buyers I was working with. I had a match of over 500 homes for their criteria.  It was a chore to eliminate properties to get a rational number to view.  First everything with an unfinished basement was tossed. Then the small yards, then homes that were near busy streets.

Only the creme de la creme made it to a showing.

This month, we’re struggling to find properties to show to buyers.  There are some great homes still on the market, but many are stale for a variety of reasons.  Some have location issues, many are still over priced, some aren’t finished as nicely as their competition.

Sellers have an opportunity. Right now! They need to get their house in top showing condition and get it on the market.

Average sold price is up: 7.13% since November and 13.59% since this time last year.  This number has been driven up by the sales in the lower price points. High end homes are still lagging.

Sellers - now is your time. Buyers want to take advantage of the home buyer tax credits.  They have pent up demand. They don’t want to miss out on low rates.  Get your house ready and get it on the market.

Buyers who were worried that the tax creidt was expiring in November hurried up their closings, and November sales were way up.  December closings were down, but with the tax credit extended, the holidays over and rates still low - sales will undoubtedly begin to increase this month.  The contracts written in January will close in February and March, so watch for closed properties to increase in those months.

The state of the economy is still in debate, but what is the average Joe doing? Joe the Plumber? Joe the Snowboarder? They’re starting to think this might be a good time to move.

Check out all the Denver area listings on my website; www.GretchensDenver.com and let me know when you want to buy a new house!

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 1 Comment »

5 Steps to Selling Your House in a Crazy Up and Down Market

You have your house on the market and you say you want to sell it.  Do you really?

I find that there are a lot of homes for sale that aren’t really, “on the market.”

What do I mean by that?  Ask yourself, “how many showings have I had this month?” “Am I reacting to the feedback I’m getting?” “Am I even getting feedback?”

Are you taking a defensive posture with your broker? Are you thinking of moving on to your second, or even third broker?  Chances are, it’s not your broker - it’s denial.  We all have moments of denial, maybe I should call it exuberant optimism, in case you feel insulted that I say the “d” word about you and your beautiful house.  But there comes a time to wake up and smell the coffee and make the tough decisions.

Step 1 - Decide if you’re committed to listening to the feedback.  The feedback from the brokers showing your home and from your own broker.  I typically use 30 days and/or 30 showings as a benchmark.  If you don’t have an offer after that many bona fide buyers have walked through the house something needs to change.  If 30 days have gone by and your house isn’t being shown, then something needs to change.  Of course, there are instances when there just aren’t any buyers in the market your house falls into, and then perhaps making changes won’t result in much. However, too many sellers think that’s the case for them, and they agree to make only slight changes. The slight change doesn’t introduce the house to a new market, but it gives the seller a change to say to his broker, “see, I told you there just weren’t buyers out there.” or “You aren’t marketing the house enough, and that’s why there aren’t buyers.”  A $3,000 price change is nothing.  As, Larry Kendall, the guru of real estate says, “Remember, no amount of marketing will overcome poor pricing.”

Step 2 - Ask your broker for an absorption rate positioning study.  Most brokers know how to calculate the absorption rate for their cities and neighborhoods. Have you seen that from yours?  It’s an analysis that will give you a very good idea how many months of supply you have in your market. Currently in Denver, we have about 5 months supply in the lower price ranges. This is a good number and indicates market stability. Conventional wisdom says anything over 6-7 months show signs of a weak market.  In our high end market we have about 7 years supply. That is most definitely a weak segment of the market.  It’s not enough to know the absorption rate. You want to know how you are positioned against the competition.  Take the sales rate (absorption rate) and divide by the number of properties currently on the market (including yours.)  This will give you your odds of selling this month.  If your odds are low, then you need to work hard to rise to the top of the heap.  Lower the price so you look the most competitive, consider remodeling, staging, planting flowers, painting. Anything you can do to come out in the top houses.

Step 3 - Calculate your “walking away money.”  Sellers are fond of telling us they, “need this amount of money out of my house.” They say they need it for their next house, to pay off debt, or so they don’t have to bring money to the table. Some sellers become shortsighted and reject an offer or don’t negotiate hard enough because of this perceived bottom line.  The thing they forget to figure into the calculation is carrying costs.  In some cases, houses are selling fast and they might be confident that they will get another buyer right away. But if it took you months to get the first offer, it might take months to get another.  And usually the second offer is worse than the first one was.  Remember to figure in your monthly carrying costs along with your loan and expenses to get to your “walking away money.” This might make that offer seem a little more appealing.

Step 4 - Keep your house clean.  That seems pretty obvious, right?  I guess it’s not, or some people have very different ideas of what clean is.  I walked into a house today with the worst cat odor in the basement you can imagine.  Putrid was my thought. My buyer covered her nose and ran back upstairs. If you live in an area that has a Pottery Barn or a Crate & Barrel, just go walk through those stores for an hour.  I’m not suggesting that your decorating style has to be the ubiquitous Pottery Barn style.  I am suggesting that while your house is on the market it needs to become a model home. Sometimes uncomfortably so.  Hopefully, it’s only for a short while, but think about it as not your house anymore.

Step 5 - Have a crucial conversation with your Broker.  The stakes are high and you want to sell your house.  Agree to become a partnership.  If your broker is exposing the house, and if you’re getting feedback that something needs to change, then you need to do your part.  The two of you should lay out a calendar.  In this calendar put your broker’s responsibilities in one color - the dates of ads, when it’s posted online, dates of open houses, etc.  In another color, put your own responsibilities. This is a two way street, Mr. Seller, it’s not all on your broker’s shoulders.  Your responsibility is to react to the feedback without getting emotional or defensive.  Don’t say, “they don’t know what they’re talking about, it would only take a few thousand dollars to finish the basement and they could do it the way they want it.” If buyers are passing your house by for finished basements then you have two choices - reduce the price or finish the basement. You choose, but do something.  Defensiveness and sneering at “stupid feedback” will not sell your house.

Houses are selling, in all price points.  The houses that sell the fastest have the most motivated sellers.  Get your house at the front of the line - be proactive not reactive.

Thanks to Larry Kendall, of The Group in Fort Collins, for sharing his wisdom about absorption rate positioning and calculating walking away money.

Want to search for Denver Homes for Sale?  Click the link at the top of my page and enter into the best site in Denver for an immediate home search.  You can search by neighborhood, by map area or by price!

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 1 Comment »

You Can’t Market Your Way Out of This

We’re at a crossroads.

Denver real estate agents acknowledge our job requires that we spend personal dollars on marketing our listings, that’s a part of the package. We pay ourselves back after a transaction closes. There is no company behind us sponsoring the ads we run, the postcards we mail, the internet sites we buy.

In a real estate market like we have today, many sellers think (hope?) that we can market ourselves to a sale, we can’t.  Buyers are few and savvy.

Exposure is happening.  Your real estate broker is advertising and marketing more than ever in the history of brokerage. Properties today are more exposed to a broader market than they’ve ever been in the past. We post them all over the internet, we blog about them, we tweet them, we post them on Facebook, we buy old fashioned print advertising (particularly magazines with a longer shelf life,) we send out email blasts to other brokers, we hold open houses and Broker open houses, and we spread word of mouth like crazy to any broker we think might be lucky enough to be working with buyers.

Still, our clients call us and ask, what more can you be doing? Phone calls like these add to our sleepless nights. What more can we do? We stare at the ceiling at night and pray that this one gets an offer before the seller pulls it and lists it with another broker. To a broker selling hope, but not necessarily selling houses.

The worst indignity is when a seller pulls the listing, lists with another broker and then reduces the price to where you knew it should be all along. Now the second broker has the benefit of all the months you’ve exposed the home, all of the marketing you’ve paid for, plus a price that you weren’t allowed to list it for.

Phew! We tell ourselves to move on, it’s a part of the job, it’s the nature of the business.

It still stinks because you can’t market yourself out of the problem, but you can price yourself out of the problem.

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 6 Comments »

A Tale of Two Markets - Denver Real Estate’s Opposite Ends of the Spectrum

I was a busy Realtor today. Showing houses in the morning, an open house in the afternoon. Typical Sunday.

Morning Glory

It was an interesting dichotomy.  My morning clients are an adorable couple with their baby looking for their first home together.  They can spend around $160,000 for a single family house. That’s a tough price range in Denver Metro Real Estate.  The houses that fit their criteria are either trashed foreclosures or they already have multiple offers. The best house today had three offers pending bank approval when I called to tell the broker we had some interest.

In the lower price range, we’ll need to be ready to move fast when we find that perfect house. Buyers must be pre-approved, should think hard before they ask a seller for concessions, and shouldn’t expect sellers to accept an offer contingent on the sale of another property.

Afternoon Delight

This afternoon, I held my Park Hill listing open. This is a new home built in 2007 and is priced at $1,749,000. The house is absolutely gorgeous, but this price range is struggling in Denver. We’ve marketed the house like crazy, held it open many weeks in a row, even reduced the price a couple of times. Sellers in this price range must understand that the only real weapons we have are price reductions until the house sells or time. Time may take longer than most sellers would like.  Thankfully, these sellers are very supportive and patient and they understand the market. Many Realtors I know are receiving tremendous pressure from their clients, and it’s a big burden when you have little control over market dynamics.

I firmly believe that our burgeoning lower end real estate market will soon be trickling up into higher and higher price points.  Jumbo mortgage rates are more affordable and comparable with conventional loans.  Pent-up demand is seen in the numbers of people going through open houses every weekend - even with the Nuggets in the playoffs this afternoon!

Buyers - Prepare by contacting your lender first. Get a pre-approval, keep on top of new inventory through a real estate broker, and don’t assume you can lowball anymore.

Sellers - Respond to what else is selling in your neighborhood. If similar houses are selling at 10-20% less than yours is listed for, then you are overpriced.  Appraisals are tough right now, you need to be able to see what the market is telling you about the value of your house. Give it time, there’s an ass for every saddle - someone will love your house - listen to the wise counsel of your broker and the buyers’ feedback and in time you’ll have your name off that title.

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Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 5 Comments »

Top 3 Reasons to Understand Real Estate Agency Rules in Colorado

You’re thinking about buying Denver Real Estate and you’re ready to hire a broker to represent you.  What you need to know is that we have very specific rules here in Colorado about disclosing and explaining the rules of Agency to our clients and customers.

There are 3 very important reasons to understand the Colorado Agency Rules before you get started:

1.   Is Your Broker a Coach?  I like to explain to people that an Agent (a Buyer Agent or a Listing Broker) is like a coach. We have a fiduciary obligation to represent your best interests, negotiate on your behalf, uncover issues with the property that are discoverable and disclose any pertinent information we might have or learn. Your coach puts you in the game, advises you how to play and roots for you all the way.

2.  Is Your Broker a Referee?  If your agent is working for you as a Transaction Broker (sometimes called a TB) then you can think of her as the Ref.  The referee runs up and down the field and makes sure the game is played fairly.  A TB will owe you the duty of honest and fair dealings, but will not be able to advise you or represent your interests.  It’s required that a broker who is working with both the buyer and seller either be a TB or keep the Agency relationship with one client and treat the other as a “customer” - someone he has no brokerage relationship with at all.  It’s not inherently bad to have your broker be a TB, but always ask in what capacity is your agent working with you.

3.   Do You Have Anyone in Your Corner? If your broker is representing the other party as an Agent and treating you as a customer, you might want to rethink that relationship and get some help and advice.  I’m always amazed at the people who will walk into an open house, say they want to make an offer, but also say they want to do it on their own to, “save the co-op commission.” People, really!  This is probably the most complex and expensive purchase of your life!  Get someone who understands the ins and outs of real estate to help you. If you like the broker at the open house, ask her if she can be a TB (her sellers would have to agree.) You can also ask her to make a referral for an outstanding Buyer’s Agent.  You might even want to engage the services of a crack real estate attorney. We aren’t required to use attorneys in Colorado transactions, but someone should be in your corner.

For more information on Colorado Agency Rules, you can visit the Colorado Real Estate Commission site.  And one more thing - these disclosures are supposed to be made in writing! Ask your broker for the Definitions of Agency if you’d like a more thorough description.

Spoken by Gretchen Faber | Discussion: 5 Comments »

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