And what are Denver real estate buyers doing?  It would seem that many were sitting on the sidelines during the month of July.  Sales slowed considerably from last year.  We still had a good number of closings, the pending sales from the tax credit frenzy of buying earlier in the year.

Our total inventory for single family and condos is now up by over 12% from July 2009 to 23,450.  Inventory increased by over 3% since June.

The number of homes we put under contract in July was down by nearly 28% from last year and down by nearly 2% from June.

The bright spot?  Prices are still up year-over-year.  We’re 6.72% higher in our average sale price since last year, but down a little since June.

I heard rates quoted today as low as 3%.  Buyers who are serious about moving should jump at the chance now.  There are plenty of great properties to choose from and you can buy so much more house that you could a few years ago.

We’re likely to have an increase in inventory for a few more months, and then it will slow down over the winter as sellers opt to wait until spring to sell.  Less homes on the market over the winter may help shrink time on the market, but it we may see a neutral effect as there are typically fewer buyers out during the winter months.

If banks continue to add their inventory of foreclosed properties (REO’s) to the market, we’ll have an even larger jump in inventory.  That will effect every seller who hasn’t sold yet.  Sellers - get your house next in line for an offer.  If you aren’t competitively priced and in perfect showing condition, you’ll bolster the buyers’ decision to buy the other house, not yours.

Buyers compare. They’re comparing your house to the competing properties in your area.  They’ll note if your lot is smaller, but your price is higher. They’ll note if your basement isn’t finished, but your price is higher.  Give them a reason to choose your house so that you can be included in the next set of market stats as a closed property.

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We can only speak in averages, utilizing some of our experience to weigh and balance your home’s appeal, decor, location and other salient factors.  One key factor is assessing how much inventory we have on the market.  And where the new listing falls among the competition for price and condition.

Sellers should pay attention to the length of time their house will take to sell for a few reasons:

• One is to brace yourself for the daily grind of preparing a house to show at any moment.
• Another is to reflect on timing issues.  Do you need to be moved by the start of school?  Do you want to take advantage of the prime selling season?  Are you being relocated in three weeks?
• The most important reason to pay attention to average selling time?  Pricing!

In Denver, the MLS posts average Days on Market.  Higher inventory generally means longer DoM.  When inventory is lower, DoM shrinks too.  In May 2010, we had 21,433 homes/condos on the market.  Average DoM was 76.  In June 2010, we had 22,689 homes/condos on the market and the average DoM went up to 82.

Average DoM is looking back. Looking forward, how long could it take to sell? Take existing inventory and divide by sales that month.  In June, Denver had 5.4 months supply of single family homes on the market.

Here’s a simple chart to explain the conventional real estate wisdom around inventory and time on market.  When houses take 7 months or more to sell, it’s a depreciating market.  When it takes less than 4 months, prices will be appreciating.  This is basic real estate supply and demand.

Denver’s available single family as compared with closed is pushing us above 5 months of inventory.  DoM will likely continue to lengthen in coming months.  More homes coming on, fewer selling.  Eventually, this could erode the price stabilization we’ve had.

However!  Buyers could react to low rates and low prices, realizing that their dream of a new home has more to do with lifestyle than with timing the markets.  If banks don’t push out too much new inventory, prices will keep stabilizing.

It’s the shadow inventory that threatens us.  Without that, Denver is poised to bump along for awhile and then turn the corner. There are buyers who recognize this is a great time to buy.  They will get the good deals at great rates.  Sellers must be keenly aware of the fine balance we’re facing - balancing how new inventory could affect their saleability.

Watch the monthly market statistics here.  Do the math and calculate how many months inventory we have and determine the best way to move your home to the front of the line - the home that buyers will pick next.

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“From what I’m hearing around the country (from lenders,) everyone has seen the buyer market completely dry up.  Like off a cliff.  Wonderful.  At least I’m busy with refinances.”

Why is the buyer market drying up?  Rates are at unbelievable lows. Like nothing any of us has seen in our lifetime.  Prices are as low as they’ve been since 2004.  With low rates and low prices, buyers can now purchase a home they could only dream about 5 or 6 years ago.

But here’s the rub - some buyers are struggling with unemployment, some are pulling back on spending and paying off debt or refinancing, and some have changed their mindset from a house being a home to a house being an investment. Those in the last category seem compelled to wait until the market “bottoms out.”

They may be able to time the bottom, but they’ll likely as not miss it. The buyers who are buying now are the ones who realize that this current combination of low rates and low prices affords them the opportunity to focus on home as a lifestyle.  To find the home they want to live in and raise their families in, to retire in, to relax and shut out the craziness of the world in.

How do you get those buyers to make an offer on your house today?  Here the top 5 things you must know to get your house sold:

1.  Know your competition - There has been a lot of talk about “shadow inventory” the past few months.  What does that mean and how does is affect you?   Homes that are in the pipeline to come on the market, but aren’t on the market yet are in the shadow inventory.  Homeowners who are delinquent, but not yet in foreclosure are highly likely to have their homes added to this inventory.  Bank owned properties tend to reduce the value of all homes for sale, so this potential inventory poses some risk that we’ll have flat or reducing prices until we work this pig through the snake.  The experts suggest that we have between 4 and 8 million distressed properties not yet on the market.

2.  Know where you stand - You MUST pay attention to the feedback.  Some sellers say, “no one has said anything about price!”  They counter that the feedback has been about the size of the basement, the size of the back yard or the master bedroom closets.  I’m here to tell you now - this is disguised price feedback! Sellers, know this - There’s an ass for every saddle.  If you are getting feedback like the above the only way to address it is through price.  The buyers aren’t finding the value in your house yet, so they’re looking for another saddle.  If the feedback says your house is dirty or the paint is chipping, then you can clean and paint.

3.  No showings means wrong price - Are you getting no showings?  You rightfully feel that you can’t react to the feedback because you aren’t hearing any.  First, have your broker review the listing as it’s entered into the MLS. Make sure that there isn’t a mistake like the wrong sub area or incorrect directional information.  Check that the house is showing up on the typical internet sites.  Then consider whether you are ready to plunge into potentially severe price reductions.  With no showings at all, you could we way off target.  You’ll need to step down your price until you begin to get showings. You can now react to the feedback and see if you hit it, or if you need to reduce further.

4.  Keep abreast of new competitors - Shadow inventory doesn’t only include bank owned properties.  It’s also comprised of the homes that sellers will be putting on the market while you’re still trying to sell.  Studies suggest that a tremendous number of sellers have been waiting until they perceive the market is turning around.  In Denver, this shadow inventory has been hitting the market since our news got better.  Available properties are increasing as the news about homes sales improves. The good news has been fabulous, but the added inventory will lengthen the time it takes to sell a home, which could result in further price depreciation.  22 million people in the U.S. are at least somewhat likely to put their home on the market at signs of a turnaround.

5.  Don’t get behind the rock - No, not Dwayne Johnson.  I wouldn’t mind being behind Dwayne.  I mean the rock that’s rolling downhill.  If your house has been on the market for more than 30 days and/or 25 showings without an offer, you’re behind the rock.  Once you’re behind a rock that’s rolling downhill, it’s very hard to get back out in front of it.  Get in front of it now.  Look at the last chart carefully.  This is Case Shiller’s projected increase in inventory for the Denver area.  We’re facing an 89% increase in inventory in the next year.  Of course, that won’t be released all on the same day or week, but it’s a number to pay attention to.  If they’re even half right, we’ll have a lot of homes to sell in coming months.

Your broker’s job is to expose the house to the larger market - via MLS, internet marketing, personal networking, open houses, blogging, mailings, etc.  Your job is to react to the feedback.  Don’t take it personally. It’s not a reflection on your choice to buy the house (it may be if you live on a freeway.)  It’s a reflection on the market and what buyers - the only ones who count - think the house is worth.

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Your broker carefully analyzed the recent sales and the current competition - the price seemed ok.  Not too high, but not leaving money on the table either.  You can always come down, you reasoned.

You eagerly await the feedback from every showing. Is this the one?

Now is the time to seriously reflect on why you are selling your house and what you’re going to do about it.

This market is kicking the pants off of experienced brokers and willing sellers. Now is the time to take the emotion out of it and analyze.

Denver has been riding a high.  We’re in the news about our recovery.  Our Days on Market are down from last year, meaning less time to sell a house.  But wait!  Days on Market are up since May.  Inventory is up since last year and since May.  What’s going on?

A Survey of 109 experts, economists and analysts by Macro Markets in the slide above shows that their expectation is that prices will not begin a serious rebound from today’s prices until 2012.  And we’re likely to see a decrease in prices between now and then.

Why?  The dreaded “shadow inventory” still lurks.  Denver real estate has benefited from banks holding back their REO properties.  Partly because they’re taking longer to foreclose and partly because they’re waiting for the market to turn.  These homes will be on the market in increasing numbers in the months to come.  Combine that shadow inventory with pent-up seller desire to sell, and you have a recipe for a huge influx of inventory.

More on this tomorrow.  Consider this - you have your house on the market today.  Do you want to compete with REO properties that will surely drive prices down?  Do you want to compete with new listings when yours may be viewed as stale?  Price to sell today.  You can move on - for all of the reasons you decided to sell in the first place.  I’ll bet that divesting of an “investment” wasn’t your main reason to move.  So focus on the real reasons - to be closer to family, to move to new schools, to follow a job.  Forget about the idea of waiting it out and getting a few more dollars.  My crystal ball tells me that’s gonna take awhile.

Search for your next home at Denver Real Estate.

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This is a wonderfully kept home, people are saying “wow, what a surprise inside!”

As you enter, you’ll immediately notice the genuine oak floors and the terrific use of space.  This home is a rare three bedroom, two bath in the heart of University Park/Observatory Park.

The floor plan offers a flexible use of space with a dining area, formal living room and a large family room.  Ample counter space and stainless appliances make the kitchen a chef’s dream.

The family room addition adds valuable above-grade living space.  A three-quarter bath and main floor laundry off the family room add to the ease and convenience of living here.  No stairs, large windows and terrific flow.

The covered patio and back yard with extra storage space will be yours to enjoy year around.  Don’t miss the large two-car garage.

Move right in and enjoy everything this wonderful neighborhood has to offer!  You’ll find a complete tour at www.2627SMadison.com.

• Bedrooms - 3
• Baths - Full and Three-Quarter
• Square Feet - 1,389
• Lot - 6,370 square feet
• Year of construction - 1951
• Taxes - $1,913
• Garage - 2-car, Detached
• Price - $379,000

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When buyers who are moving to a new town come for a house hunting trip it can be a whirlwind.  We hit the ground running, whether it’s 95 degrees out, raining cats and dogs or the snow is anything less than a blizzard.  The days are long, the homes run into each other, and sellers have only moments to make an impression.

First impressions count.

This is an actual sign I saw on a home last week.  I’ve made one alteration.  I’ve altered what was spelled out in full force to hit us between the eyes as we stepped up to the front door.

The buyers had their two young boys with them in their car, and asked me to run up and preview the house quickly before they got the kids out.  There was a retail center behind the house we weren’t counting on, and they felt it would be a deal killer.  However, being respectful to the sellers, they wanted me to take a quick look and leave my card.

As I came up the walkway, there were cigarette butts all over the front patio and crumpled cigarette packages in an empty planter.  The paint on the front door jamb was discolored and poorly re-painted.  Then there was the big sign on the door.  I’ve never seen anything like it.

Needless to say, we beat it out of there and never looked back.

I have to wonder who those sellers are?  This home is priced more than double the average home price in metro Denver, and is in an area of large suburban single family homes.  Do these sellers think this is funny?  Do they have teenagers and forget that you don’t talk to everyone else like this? (Or anyone else for that matter?)

I sent the listing broker detailed feedback and never received so much as a comment back from him.  A match made in heaven.  He apparently doesn’t want to sell his listing any more than his seller does.

Sellers - we have plenty of choices for buyers out there.  If you aren’t serious, don’t waste my time or my clients’.  Get your house looking its best. This is a beauty competition.  The house with the sign won for ugly.

Check out my listings online for terrific homes with fabulous sellers!

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Cooling is relative.  The Denver area market has improved considerably from a year ago, and with rates at their lowest in 50 years, there are still buyers off the fence and in the market.  The average price has increased by nearly 6% from last year and days on market are down by 18%.  Houses are selling faster and for more money.

But with inventory increasing, and likely to continue to do so, home sales may bump along for awhile without a discernible spike in activity like we experienced a few months ago.   The Denver Post article last week about the local market succinctly concluded that a cooling trend is evident.

Denver and Colorado have the benefit of an educated and stable work force.  Unemployment is higher than we’d like it, but below the national rate.  Consumer confidence is evident at the mall, the garden stores and the summer street festivals.  We are a community of hardworking Colorado enthusiasts.

What the table above doesn’t illustrate is the micro level activity in specific neighborhoods and price ranges.  Luxury home sales have increased, primarily due to large and realistic price-reductions and more favorable jumbo rates.  Interestingly, we’re seeing more all-cash deals in every price point.

Lower and mid-priced homes held steady for the first half of the year, and drove a lot of the higher end sales too.  Move up buyers have a terrific opportunity in this market.

This is the time to list or buy a house.  Buyers have the benefit of the lowest rates in 50 years and the lowest home prices in decades.  Sellers have the opportunity to take advantage of what’s left of the summer. Dog days or not, selling is hot.

Looking to buy or sell a home in Denver?  Look no further than www.GretchensDenver.com for all of the information you’ll need.

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Lenders are facing more regulations for underwriting mortgages. These standards will certainly ensure that buyers will need to do more than fog a mirror to get a loan.

If you’re considering purchasing a home, here’s what you’ll need to know:

• The lender will be pulling another credit score about three days before you close. If you opened a new credit card, bought the SUV you thought you had to have to live in Colorado or decided to max out a credit card with your new appliances, beware - your credit score could be negatively affected.  Don’t let that happen.  Put off your big purchases until after the closing and don’t open new credit.
• Employment verification - yes, the lender has to do this again too.  Three days before closing.  Don’t quit your job before you buy your house!
• As I said in a recent article about credit scores, buyers’ initial scores need to be higher than ever to get the best rates.  Make sure you handle any credit repair issues in the months prior to applying for a home loan.

The best advice of all is to utilize a loan officer who clearly knows the guidelines, and who can advise you throughout the process.  Use a loan officer in the community you’ll be buying in.  Out-of-state lenders rarely know or understand the nuances of closing loans in another state. We see more delayed and messed up closings with out-of-state lenders than for any other reason.  Now, buyers themselves may cause delays (and be at risk of losing their deposit) if they don’t heed the warning to leave well enough alone when it comes to their credit and employment.

Look for your new house here: www.GretchensDenver.com and click “contact me” to ask for references to great local Denver loan officers.

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I think we’ll settle for that.  We’ve always said here in Denver that our economy is counter cyclical, setting the trend up or down.  If Denver is improving, then much of the U.S. will follow.  Our real estate market statistics showed a slowdown in May from April, but we were still up over 20% from last year. That’s a dramatic gain in sales and activity.

My Great Grandfather founded the Miss America Pageant in Atlantic City to promote a lengthened summer season at his beach resort.  Did you ever wonder why the Pageant was in September?  Advertising, positive spin on his city, hotel guest-counts, paying guests in September.

But to the contestants, it was more than hotel guest-counts, it was a lifetime dream.  They wouldn’t want runner up or most improved.  But being most improved is fine for us here in Denver - we’re happy about it!  We want to be most improved!  We don’t need to be Miss America.

Patty Silverstein, Chief Economist for the Denver Economic Development Corporation, said in a seminar yesterday that official employment figures don’t include the self-employed.  We’re officially losing jobs, yet we added 89,535 new residents to Colorado in 2009.  Adding people increases the likelihood that housing demand will increase as well.

It’s true that sales slowed from March and April to May.  The tax credit had a lot to do with pushing the summer business forward. But with solid growth our improving real estate market will continue the positive momentum.  Most improved means setting the trend.  Crack open the Champagne!

Then search for your next home at www.GretchensDenver.com.

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Live on Park Hill’s timeless boulevard in a home so gracious and comfortable you’ll never want to leave.

This home’s craftsmanship and classic elegance are apparent from the time you step in the front door. The grand two-story foyer has a double white-birch stairwell that sets the tone for elegance.  Custom moulding frames the wide arched doorways throughout the home, illustrating the fine architectural details.

Gleaming hardwood floors cover the main level and French doors open graciously to two terraces and a three-tiered Trex deck with a pergola, fountain and surround sound perfect for entertaining.

The great room is the heart of the home with a large open floor plan, fireplace and custom kitchen that features black granite counter tops, a double oven and Bosch and GE Profile appliances.  The breakfast nook is a bright sunny space – perfect for your morning coffee.

On the upper level the master suite also includes French doors leading to a charming balcony, in addition to a two-sided fireplace, a five-piece bath, and a massive closet sure to thrill.  Adjacent to the master is a large loft, perfect for a library or reading area.

Year round comfort is assured with Pella windows, two air conditioners, two furnaces and a seventy five gallon hot water heater.  The home also has a security system.

Tucked away on a lushly treed corner lot, facing one of Denver’s famous Boulevards, this home’s curb appeal is enhanced by professional landscaping and extensive architectural lighting.

You’ll marvel at the enormous four-car garage with additional storage and a finished basement with a bedroom and bath.

Enjoy all that Park Hill has to offer, parks and boulevards, neighborhood shops and restaurants and close proximity to downtown and Cherry Creek.  This home is exceptionally well-priced at $840,000 and awaits you!

For a full tour and extensive photography visit the custom web site at www.6128Montview.com.

PROPERTY INFORMATION

• Style: Two Story
• Bedrooms: Four
• Bathrooms: Five
• Fireplaces: Two
• Garage: 4 Car Oversized
• Square Feet: 4,137
• Total Sq Feet: 5,492
• Lot Size: 9,870
• Floors: Hardwood, Tile, Carpet
• Heat/Cooling: Gas Forced Air, A/C
• Utilities: $270/Monthly Average
• Construction: Stucco
• Year Built: 1996
• Taxes: $5,200.70

FLOOR PLAN

Main Level: Entry, office, living room, family room, dining room, breakfast nook, kitchen, full bath, half bath and laundry room.

Upper Level: Master suite with walk-in closet, sitting/TV area, two additional bedrooms and one additional full bath.

Basement Level: Guest suite with full bath and storage area.

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